Risk of a Stampede

This is in continuation to our previous post. As correctly put across by many of our friends and which we agree to, safety-drills in schools is definitely a step forward in saving lives. We also intend to continue this discussion, because we feel a few questions were left unanswered in our last post. These are as following:

1. What is the likelihood of a stampede when conducting such evacuation drills in schools?
2. Drop-Duck-Cover-Hold versus other methods?
3. Why authorities in developing countries are blamed complacent about conducting such drills?

While we leave it to later or subject specific experts to comment the last two of the above, we surely can put across a viewpoint for the first one.

The answer is, the likelihood is VERY LOW; and perhaps needs an explanation.

While a false alarm may cause panic - evacuation drills and actual disaster events (natural) are mostly coordinated events. The likelihood could have been Zero/Nil, but stampedes might occur when spaces are crowded. Crowd management is one answer, and the researches continue and awarenesses increase. See for example, Wikipedia lists about thirty stampede related events in the last century, and now thirty in the first decade itself. One thing we can note that is our exposure to such information has increased. Other thing to note is that people, unlike or like animals, when they don’t have a clear sense of purpose in being present in a place, and a place overcrowded, become victims of chaos and stampede. Events like riots, congregation for a sporting event or a religious ceremony are the only examples in the list - others can be put in as outliers.

Thankfully, in most places where education and its spaces are taken seriously, much of the problem is averted by mere alertness and prevention.

Emergency planning, small passages, barricades or no barricade, control crowd flow, work on a balanced crowd ratio (or movement) in a crowded space are some examples.

And, Schools and educational places are the places where this can be taught.

***

Stampedes, scientifically (more precisely in Physics) are in the domain of a word called ‘Impulse’. Impulse is also defined as change in momentum of a body, in other words, changes in Mass and Velocities of relative bodies. And when there are too many bodies, there is bound to be various speeds and masses, and these bodies would collide.

Two ways –human’s can act beyond natural is perhaps as following:

1. By controlling speed variation
2. Make oneself lighter

Not only keep your instincts natural when getting out, keep your speed in check, and off your weight from the other. In other words, keep it easy and cautious together when the alarm bell rings.

***

References:

• Dec 1^st 1958 Chicago http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyslGbvSdxE&feature=related
• Wikipedia definition http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stampede
• Google search on definition of stampede http://www.google.co.in/search?q=define%3A+stampede&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
• Google search on definition of impulse http://www.google.co.in/search?q=define%3A+Impulse&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
• Through Wikipedia a news report tells us, how not to follow the flow and fall flat on the chest http://www.slate.com/id/2209135/

An Important Drill

Recently, on the 5^th of April, an NGO Geo Hazards with its partners conducted a massive earthquake safety drill event with the Tibetan schools in the high earthquake risk zones in India. We call it massive, because the drill extended to six states across the country, with about sixteen thousand school children participating.

These earthquake drills, a subject of specialization, can throw up infinite how-to-do-it Planning and Implementation scenarios, with also a need to make these drills a larger and a regular event.

The concerns during the Conception and Planning stages, perhaps because of sensitiveness of the subject, puzzle even the experts. In simplicity, these concerns would range from choosing an appropriate drill methodology to the right way of implementing it.

Some resources on understanding these earthquake drills, we found on the internet are below:

1. For Simple understanding http://www.essortment.com/all/earthquakedril_rxyi.htm
2. For Detailed understanding http://www.shakeout.org/
3. For more detailed understanding, one can try this Google Search or one of his/her own

Perhaps it is a collective of difficulties which pushes these drills to providence during the conception stages itself. Further, there is a risk of blame-game, if in the real event all lives cannot be saved. The real difficult part - the field implementation part, with all its inherent risks to life and injuries as well, also means convincing schools to be prepared, and reminded that safety of children is their responsibility too.

Much of this insight to us also comes from Hari (Mr. Hari Kumar, GeoHazards) who wants to see a safer environment for the school children. We at Quakeschool would like to extend our support and good wishes to the participants for the next event, tentatively planned on this June in the city of Shillong, India.

Some thoughts on “SCHOOL SAFETY” in South Asian countries

Image source: Google Maps

Recently, we have been conducting some research for one of our clients on South Asian disaster history and its impacts on schools.

The interesting, unfortunate and perhaps already well publicized event is of the Kashmir earthquake in 2005 in which 17,000 School children were killed (out of a total life loss of some 80,000 reported) – the biggest known single event disaster to hit school buildings collectively. The number is exceptionally high because the earthquake struck during school hours. Other schools during other emergencies have been luckier – because it is the ‘important hours’ rather than ‘all hours’ that the children would spend in schools.

The next disaster events topping the list in the sub-continent are fire incidents, floods, war/terrorism, and malnutrition, only that these occur in a larger and slow intermittent period, measurable within a decade and amounting to a larger concerning number.

We will keep sharing more.

Quakeschool desk

India Natural Disaster Safety Portal launch

We are glad to have the beta version of the School and Hospital Safety Portal inaugurated today by the NDMA (Government of India) at New-Delhi today.

Aiming for safety - by being a knowledge and resource portal for Schools and Hospitals, and local communities as well, this portal has some interesting features.

Such as-

1. Registering School or Hospital's Safety Profile online

2. District level natural hazard status in India.
   Hazards covered currently are - 1) Earthquakes , 2) Tsunami, 3) Floods, & 4) Wind/Cyclones

3. A Library
   

4. FREE Downloading and Ordering of awareness Games and Posters

The various players who worked sleepless nights on making this portal a reality can be seen here. Beta version will be further improved upon with fine tunings and fixings in next coming months.

Please do regularly visit the site.